[Press Release] Foldable OLED Market Grows Fast to US$ 24.6 Billion by 2023

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5G communication technology introduced from next year can process higher image quality and large-capacity contents such as VR more rapidly, besides real-time streaming service. As the communication speed increases, the relevant contents, are expected to be released, which require high resolution and large screen with graphics detailed.

 

The current smart phone is getting bigger up to 6 inches, but it is not enough for 4K resolution of 5G communication age. Since 4K resolution is to be possible at 7-inch and larger displays, they might be the most suitable product for the 5G communication era. Foldable smart phones are digital convergence products that can function as smart phones and tablet PCs as the next generation mobile devices that use 7 inch or more displays but maximize portability.

 

Owing to foldable OLED, foldable smart phones are likely to be available. Several companies have rushed to produce various prototype foldable OLED displays at exhibitions and conferences. A few panel makers even pledged to mass-produce foldable OLED displays competitively. OLED display companies worldwide including Samsung Display have invested enormous development costs in order to preempt the next generation product market, and now foldable OLEDs are starting to appear.

 

Samsung Electronics, which is leading the OLED smart phone market, is planned to launch the in-folding type foldable phone for the first time in the world next year. Accordingly, Samsung Display has prepared 1.5R foldable OLED. For Samsung Electronics, which has suffered sluggish sales of the Galaxy S series, Foldable Phone is a super premium product that needs to be succeeded.

 

<Expected structure of Samsung Electronics’ in-folding type foldable phone>
Source: Foldable OLED Report, UBI research

 

UBI Research (CEO: Yi, Choong-hoon), an OLED research institute, has published Foldable OLED Report. According to the report, the market for foldable OLED in 2019 is only US$ 480 million, but it is expected to grow to US $ 24.6 billion in 2023.

Yi said, “The rapid growth of the foldable OLED market is due to the fact that 7-inch and larger smartphones, which can support 4K resolution, become required products in the 5G communication era. Accordingly, the value of OLED panel makers will be determined by the success of foldable OLED production.”

 

However, foldable OLED is not a product that anyone can produce. Since foldable OLED has a more complex module structure than conventional flexible OLED, it is necessary to overcome the changes in various panel characteristics caused by folding. Especially in in-folding type foldable OLED, compensation circuit technology to overcome TFT resistance change and resilience required when folding and unfolding screen are typical technical difficulties. In order to realize this technology, the key challenges of reducing stress at the area of folding, selecting a proper substrate, determining the ideal stack structure, and optimizing the liftoff process, need to be overcome. Even when folding over 200,000 times, it is required to have reliability that there will be no abnormality on display image quality and surface.

“Foldable OLED Report” published by UBI Research analyzes the development trends of panel makers together with the development issues of major films that determine the reliability of foldable OLED.

The golden market for Automotive OLED Displays is approaching.

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The display of connected cars is getting bigger and bigger to for the convenience of providing various information. The displays used in general vehicles include the cluster, CID (center information display), RSE (rear seat entertainment), and RMD (room mirror display). In connected cars, various buttons of the center fascia are displayed, and a display is attached to the door using a camera instead of a side mirror. The Audi e-tron®, all-new electric Sports Utility Vehicle (SUV) feature a small side-view OLED display instead of the existing side mirrors. According to Choong-Hoon Yi, CEO of UBI Research, the reason why automobile manufacturers are actively trying to use OLED displays is because OLED can be a good resolution in various aspects such as design, visibility and thickness. Since the side view camera is attached to the door, the viewing angle should be very good for the driver’s eyes. Especially in nighttime driving, black should be accurately represented on the display to make things clearer. In addition, OLEDs with fast response must be used for the mirror of car because the screen needs to be changed rapidly depending on speed of the car (if it is running at a high speed). In winter season when temperatures are low, LCDs with slow response times are not recommendable to be used.

Flexible OLEDs should also be used to mount the cockpit display on the dashboard that maximizes driver’s convenience.

<Benz F015 Cockpit display and Audi e-tron side view display>

Audi has pioneered a new application market for OLED by using AMOLED as a display for rear-seat remote control for the first time this year. Audi uses rigid OLED that is supplied by Samsung Display.
In contrast, LG Display, the strongest player in the market for OLED TVs, is looking for the display market for clusters and CIDs as flexible OLED with two layers of RGB OLED. Visteon, the second-largest supplier of automotive displays, is preparing for the cluster market with LG Display’s pOLED. Since 12.3-inch p OLED is made of LTPS substrate and its OLED process is more complicated than that of OLED for smartphone, panel prices including module are expected to be equal to 55-inch WRGB OLED, which can create a premium market even if the quantity is small.

<Visteon, 12.3 inches pOLED>

According to “Automotive OLED Display Report” published by UBI Research, the market for automotive OLED displays led by Samsung Display and LG Display is expected to grow to US$ 540million in 2023.

 

“Quarterly OLED Market Report for TV” was just published.

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UBI Research (CEO, Yi Choong-Hoon) just published [Quarterly OLED Market Report for TV].

OLED TV still accounts for only a few percent of the global TV market. However, as OLED TVs are in the premium TV market area of more than US$ 2,000, the sales volume is gradually increasing.

In the second quarter of 2018, the substrate area of the OLED lines for TV is 1.12Mm2, which is unchanged from the first quarter. Due to the expansion of the Guangzhou plant in China, the annual substrate area in 2018 is to be 19.48Mm2, 31% increase from 14.8Mm2 in 2017.

As OLED TV sales in the premium TV market has continued to improve, the sales of WRGB OLED panels in the second quarter totaled US$ 460 million, up 21% from US$ 367 million in the previous quarter.

 

WRGB OLED panel shipments were 720,000 units in the second quarter, up 19% from last quarter’s 580,000 units.

 

The market for OLED panel for TV in 2018 is projected to be US$ 2.18 billion, which is expected to increase by 33% compared to US$ 1.45 billion last year.

 

The cost of manufacturing OLED panels for the second quarter was US$ 432 for 55-inch UHD OLED panels, while the 65-inch and 778-inch OLED panels cost US$ 967 and US $ 1,067 respectively. Only 77-inch panels are expected to be profitable.

 

The report covers production scale, market performance, market forecast, demand- supply analysis, and manufacturing cost analysis for production of OLED panels for TV. It is scheduled to be published quarterly.

“Quarterly OLED Market Report for Smartphones” was just published.

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UBI Research (CEO, Yi Choong-Hoon) just published [Quarterly OLED Market Report for Smart Phones]. In the second quarter of 2018, the sales of OLED for smart phones totaled US$ 5.76billion, accounting for 88.9% of the total OLED market.

 

In the report, the market performance, cost, and investment status of smartphone OLED are analyzed quarterly to provide supply-demand data and market forecast. Understanding the changes in the OLED market for smartphones in the rapidly changing OLED industry can predict the future direction of the OLED market.

 

The substrate area of the global OLED lines for Smartphone manufacturing for the second quarter was 3.49 Mm2, up 6.4% from 3.27 Mm2 in the first quarter and 30.1% higher than the second quarter of 2017. In 2018, the annual substrate area is to be 14.8 Mm2, a 27% increase from 10.8 Mm2 in 2017.

 

Through the analysis of the performance in the first and second quarter of 2018, the report predicts OLED market for smartphones to reach US$ 28.5 billion in 2018, up 14.9% compared to US$ 24.2 billion in 2017. According to the report, the operating rate of Samsung Display’s A3 line, which leads the OLED panel market, has gradually risen since the second quarter. Its operating rate is expected to be more than 70% in the third quarter. As such, the display material market, including emitting materials, will continue to grow. In the second quarter, OLED sales of Korean companies amounted to US$ 6.28 billion, accounting for 96.9% of total sales. China, which ranked the second, recorded only 3% share, with the sales of US$ 190 million.

 

LG Chem, Rapid growth in the second quarter emitting material market

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According to the emitting material market track of UBI Research (President: Choong-Hoon, Yi), the second-quarter OLED emitting material market totaled US$ 230 million. Compared to the previous quarter, it increased by 19.3% and formed the same market as the second quarter of 2017. There was a concern about slow growth since the OLED panel sales for smartphones fell in the first quarter of the year, down 38.5% compared to the fourth quarter of the last year. However, the emitting material is also recovering due to the rising utilization rates of Samsung Display and the start of POLED production at LG Display.


Six companies such as Dow, Duksan Neolux, Idemitsu Kosan, LG Chem, Merck, and UDC were among the companies with sales exceeding US$ 20 million in the second quarter.

Among those companies, LG Chem posted the highest quarterly sales growth, up 35% from the previous quarter and up 26% from the same quarter last year. This is resulted from the start of LG Display’s POLED mass production and the related sales growth. Since LG Displays’ POLED is expected to start applying to Apple’s iPhone from the end of the year, LG Chem is anticipated to record the highest growth rate among emitting material makers in 2019.

How much will be the investment cost for 8Generation QD-OLED TV?

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In the “2018 OLED Equipment Report” recently published by UBI Research, the required investment cost was analyzed for the QD-OLED that Samsung Display started to develop.

QD-OLED, which is being developed by Samsung Display, is a method of displaying three colors of RGB by separating green and red from the light emitted from blue OLED through QD (quantum dot) material. The light passing through the QD material once again passes through the color filter and displays a richer color. QD-OLED is similar to the manufacturing method of WDRGB OLED produced by LG Display. First, both companies use oxide TFTs. At WRGB OLED, blue is applied twice and red and green are deposited between them. In contrast, QD-OLED is fabricated by depositing only blue material twice. Both methods use the open mask with an empty center.

 

 

For both QD-OLED and WRGB OLED, the color filter manufacturing cost is assumed to be same; however, QD-OLED should be equipped with additional equipment to coat QD materials.

According to the report, it is expected that the investment cost is to be equal because the similar equipment can be used for module, cell, encapsulation and evaporator. Since WRGB OLED is bottom emission type, it is formed together when backplane is formed including TFT. However, QD-OLED adopts top emission method. A color filter is separately formed on the top glass substrate and the QD layer is patterned thereon. Therefore, QD-OLED requires higher investment cost than WRGB OLED.

The report describes that based on 8Generation 26K, the investment cost for QD-OLED is estimated to be US$ 1.1 billion, which is 1.03 times higher than WRGB OLED (US$ 1.07 billion). In contrast, the required investment cost to manufacture OLED by inkjet method, which JOLED is promoting commercialization, is projected as US$ 0.88 billion, which is to be about 80% of QD-OLED.

 

Dae Jeong YOON(ydj7211@ubiresearch.com)

UBI research just issued 2018 2Q AMOLED Display Market Tracks

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UBI Research recently published “2Q18 AMOLED Display Market Tracks”, which includes market updates of the second quarter of 2018. The report covers OLED display panel makers’ investment status, OLED display market forecasts from 2018 to 2022, OLED demand and supply trends, and competitiveness analysis of OLED Smartphone business for Samsung Display and other OLED display panel makers.

The market update, published with the Excel spreadsheet, describes the production line status and the added line status through future investments of the 15 OLED display panel makers worldwide. Also, it describes not only the major OLED application market such as smart phones and TVs, but also the market forecast by country.

The demand for OLED mobile sets (including smart phones and smart watches) in the first quarter of 2018 dropped to 98 million units from 130 million units in the fourth quarter of last year, due to the lower-than-expected performance of the premium smartphone market, where Samsung Electronics’ Galaxy S series and Apple’s iPhone occupy most of the market. OLED mobile set market is to recover gradually until 3Q, when Apple’s new smartphone model is launched, and by the end of 2018, the demand is expected to recover as to the similar level of the same period of last year. In addition, Samsung Display is anticipated to have a positive impact on the recovery of the Smartphone market in the second half of the year by securing competitiveness by lowering the sales price of rigid OLED panel for mobile phone to about US$ 25 to compete with LCD in China.

 

Consumers’ smartphone replacement cycle is getting longer due to the reason that there is no revolutionary change in the new model compared to the past, and the Smartphone penetration in most of the countries except for India, South America and Africa is reaching the limit. Accordingly, the outlook for the downturn is mostly forecasted in the recent smartphone market. There is a growing interest in technology and design to apply a different form factor to revive the market. In this regard, Samsung Electronics’ foldable OLED smartphone, which is scheduled to be released later this year or early next year, is expected to create a new momentum. Attention is focused on whether a folding- type flexible display (Dynamic Flexible Display) will be succeeded as a new type of smartphone from the existing edge-type flexible display .(Static Flexible Display)

 

UBI Research predicts that the OLED Smartphone market will grow from 430 million units in 2018 to 900 million units in 2022, and the market for foldable OLED Smartphone is to be from about 1million units in 2019 to 18million units in 2022. This reflects the expansion of OLED panel production lines by panel makers such as LG Display and BOE, besides Samsung Display. It will be updated as new applications are developed in future and the Smartphone market moves forward.

In OLED panel market, OLED panel for Smartphone still occupies 91% of the whole market. Samsung Display has accounted for 90% of total OLED panel market performance and LG Display is followed with about 7.8% share.

OLED TVs, which are continuously increasing in demand worldwide compared to the Smartphone market, are expected to be in short supply this year. LG Display, the only OLED TV panel supplier, will continue to invest in production for the next five years. With the recent approval of new production facility for OLED TV panel in Guangzhou, the full-scale equipment move-in is expected this year. In Paju P10 investment plan, it was confirmed that LG Display will invest in OLED TV panel production line instead of LCD line investment which was examined before. Thus, the OLED TV market is projected to grow to US $ 5.6 billion.

 

Hana Oh (hanaoh@ubiresearch.com)

OLED equipment market is expected to reach US$ 31.5 billion in 2019

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■ The total OLED equipment market is projected as US$ 106.7 billion in 2018-2022.

■ From 2018 to 2022, China is expected to account for 64% of the total investment while Korea will account for 29%.

The total OLED equipment market is projected as US$ 106.7 billion from 2018 to 2022.

According to the ‘1H18 AMOLED Equipment Market Track’ published by UBI Research, the total OLED equipment market is expected to reach US$ 106.7 billion in 2018-2022. The equipment market of 2018 is estimated to be a total of US $ 21.1 billion in, and the largest investment of US$ 31.5 billion is expected in 2019.

<2018~2022 OLED equipment market forecast>

Dae-Jeong Yoon, Researcher of UBI research said “In 2019 and 2020 of the next five years, Korea and China panel makers are key drivers for the investment. By 2019, Korean panel makers are likely to focus on large-area OLED investment and Chinese panel makers will focus on small and medium-sized flexible OLED Investment.”

According to the market track, China will account for 64% of the total equipment market from 2018 to 2022 while Korea will account for 29%. Thus, the two countries will lead the OLED equipment investment. In 2018 and 2019, global panel makers are expected to invest the total amount of US$ 52.7 billion, which might be the largest scale.

<Overall equipment market share by country in 2018~2022>

In this market track, the overall equipment market analysis is categorized by equipment, process, company, generation, and substrate. The investment cost including logistic equipment and inspection equipment for each process was calculated, and the cost for touch related equipment was excluded for the market analysis.

In addition, ASP and quarterly sale revenue of each equipment are also described from 2016 to the second quarter of 2018, which will help the related companies to develop future direction, business strategy, and technology and market trend analysis.

Samsung Display’s 1Q 2018 shipment declined, but it is expected to recover in 2Q.

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According to UBI Research’s first quarter display market track, Samsung Display’s OLED shipments for smart phones dropped to 88 million units, down 26.0% from the previous quarter, and 4.7% year-on-year decrease.

On the other hand, the sales revenue was US$ 5.37 billion, down 32.4% from the previous quarter and 30.4% year-on- year increase.

<Samsung Display’s sales performance of OLED for Smartphone, 1Q, 2018>

For rigid OLED, the utilization rate of rigid OLED mass production lines dropped in 1Q due to the keeping adoption of LCD in Samsung Electronics’ entry-level model and the decline in demand from Chinese set makers. For flexible OLED, its capacity utilization rate also declined due to falling demand from Apple and sluggish sales of Galaxy S series .

UBI Research mentioned, “In the first quarter of 2018, the sales were sluggish due to falling demand of set makers; however, the full-screen rigid OLED demand began to increase in April, and accordingly the utilization rate of rigid OLED production lines began to rise gradually. From June, the utilization rate is expected to recover to the previous year level. Also, the flexible OLED mass production lines will be likely to be in full operation since Samsung Electronics will start mass production of the next model and Apple will start mass production of new models.”

The overall OLED market was totaled as US $ 6.12 billion in the first quarter of 2018, of which the OLED market for smart phones was 91.1% and the market of OLED for TV was 5.7%.

The OLED market for smartphones is projected to reach 4.4 billion units in 2018, and Samsung Display is expected to hold a market share of 93.4%.

<2018 OLED market forecast>

Market for OLED materials and components is forecast to grow to US$37 billion in 2022.

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In the 2018 OLED material and component report and Market Track published by UBI Research, the entire market for OLED materials and components market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 29% by 2022, forming a market of US$ 37 billion in 2022.

<Market forecast for OLED materials and components>

The overall OLED material and component market forecasted in this report is calculated based on the panel makers’ available capacity and includes all the materials and components for OLED production.

The total OLED material and component market is counted as US$ 9,794 million in 2017 and is expected to grow by 35% to US$ 13,264 million in 2018.

Major growth drivers are mentioned as capacity expansion of Samsung Display and LG Display inclusive of Gen6 flexible OLED mass production lines of Chinese panel makers.

UBI Research commented “Utilization of Samsung Display in the first quarter of 2018 was poor, but it is turning to normal from the second quarter, and LG Display and Chinese panel makers are also aiming to mass-produce this year. In particular, it will have a major impact on the growth of the materials and components market in 2018 whether Samsung Display’s A4, LG Display’s E5, E6 and BOE’s B7 lines will be in full operation.”

In the 2018 OLED material and component report, the market is forecast for 20 kinds of major materials and components used in OLED for mobile devices and large-area OLED, including substrate glass, carrier glass, PI and organic materials for TFT. In addition, the report covers industry trends and key issues related to the core materials, while Market Track forecasts the expected purchase volume and purchase amount by panel makers.