How much will be the investment cost for 8Generation QD-OLED TV?

 

In the “2018 OLED Equipment Report” recently published by UBI Research, the required investment cost was analyzed for the QD-OLED that Samsung Display started to develop.

QD-OLED, which is being developed by Samsung Display, is a method of displaying three colors of RGB by separating green and red from the light emitted from blue OLED through QD (quantum dot) material. The light passing through the QD material once again passes through the color filter and displays a richer color. QD-OLED is similar to the manufacturing method of WDRGB OLED produced by LG Display. First, both companies use oxide TFTs. At WRGB OLED, blue is applied twice and red and green are deposited between them. In contrast, QD-OLED is fabricated by depositing only blue material twice. Both methods use the open mask with an empty center.

 

 

For both QD-OLED and WRGB OLED, the color filter manufacturing cost is assumed to be same; however, QD-OLED should be equipped with additional equipment to coat QD materials.

According to the report, it is expected that the investment cost is to be equal because the similar equipment can be used for module, cell, encapsulation and evaporator. Since WRGB OLED is bottom emission type, it is formed together when backplane is formed including TFT. However, QD-OLED adopts top emission method. A color filter is separately formed on the top glass substrate and the QD layer is patterned thereon. Therefore, QD-OLED requires higher investment cost than WRGB OLED.

The report describes that based on 8Generation 26K, the investment cost for QD-OLED is estimated to be US$ 1.1 billion, which is 1.03 times higher than WRGB OLED (US$ 1.07 billion). In contrast, the required investment cost to manufacture OLED by inkjet method, which JOLED is promoting commercialization, is projected as US$ 0.88 billion, which is to be about 80% of QD-OLED.

 

Dae Jeong YOON(ydj7211@ubiresearch.com)

UBI research just issued 2018 2Q AMOLED Display Market Tracks

UBI Research recently published “2Q18 AMOLED Display Market Tracks”, which includes market updates of the second quarter of 2018. The report covers OLED display panel makers’ investment status, OLED display market forecasts from 2018 to 2022, OLED demand and supply trends, and competitiveness analysis of OLED Smartphone business for Samsung Display and other OLED display panel makers.

The market update, published with the Excel spreadsheet, describes the production line status and the added line status through future investments of the 15 OLED display panel makers worldwide. Also, it describes not only the major OLED application market such as smart phones and TVs, but also the market forecast by country.

The demand for OLED mobile sets (including smart phones and smart watches) in the first quarter of 2018 dropped to 98 million units from 130 million units in the fourth quarter of last year, due to the lower-than-expected performance of the premium smartphone market, where Samsung Electronics’ Galaxy S series and Apple’s iPhone occupy most of the market. OLED mobile set market is to recover gradually until 3Q, when Apple’s new smartphone model is launched, and by the end of 2018, the demand is expected to recover as to the similar level of the same period of last year. In addition, Samsung Display is anticipated to have a positive impact on the recovery of the Smartphone market in the second half of the year by securing competitiveness by lowering the sales price of rigid OLED panel for mobile phone to about US$ 25 to compete with LCD in China.

 

Consumers’ smartphone replacement cycle is getting longer due to the reason that there is no revolutionary change in the new model compared to the past, and the Smartphone penetration in most of the countries except for India, South America and Africa is reaching the limit. Accordingly, the outlook for the downturn is mostly forecasted in the recent smartphone market. There is a growing interest in technology and design to apply a different form factor to revive the market. In this regard, Samsung Electronics’ foldable OLED smartphone, which is scheduled to be released later this year or early next year, is expected to create a new momentum. Attention is focused on whether a folding- type flexible display (Dynamic Flexible Display) will be succeeded as a new type of smartphone from the existing edge-type flexible display .(Static Flexible Display)

 

UBI Research predicts that the OLED Smartphone market will grow from 430 million units in 2018 to 900 million units in 2022, and the market for foldable OLED Smartphone is to be from about 1million units in 2019 to 18million units in 2022. This reflects the expansion of OLED panel production lines by panel makers such as LG Display and BOE, besides Samsung Display. It will be updated as new applications are developed in future and the Smartphone market moves forward.

In OLED panel market, OLED panel for Smartphone still occupies 91% of the whole market. Samsung Display has accounted for 90% of total OLED panel market performance and LG Display is followed with about 7.8% share.

OLED TVs, which are continuously increasing in demand worldwide compared to the Smartphone market, are expected to be in short supply this year. LG Display, the only OLED TV panel supplier, will continue to invest in production for the next five years. With the recent approval of new production facility for OLED TV panel in Guangzhou, the full-scale equipment move-in is expected this year. In Paju P10 investment plan, it was confirmed that LG Display will invest in OLED TV panel production line instead of LCD line investment which was examined before. Thus, the OLED TV market is projected to grow to US $ 5.6 billion.

 

Hana Oh (hanaoh@ubiresearch.com)

OLED equipment market is expected to reach US$ 31.5 billion in 2019

■ The total OLED equipment market is projected as US$ 106.7 billion in 2018-2022.

■ From 2018 to 2022, China is expected to account for 64% of the total investment while Korea will account for 29%.

The total OLED equipment market is projected as US$ 106.7 billion from 2018 to 2022.

According to the ‘1H18 AMOLED Equipment Market Track’ published by UBI Research, the total OLED equipment market is expected to reach US$ 106.7 billion in 2018-2022. The equipment market of 2018 is estimated to be a total of US $ 21.1 billion in, and the largest investment of US$ 31.5 billion is expected in 2019.

<2018~2022 OLED equipment market forecast>

Dae-Jeong Yoon, Researcher of UBI research said “In 2019 and 2020 of the next five years, Korea and China panel makers are key drivers for the investment. By 2019, Korean panel makers are likely to focus on large-area OLED investment and Chinese panel makers will focus on small and medium-sized flexible OLED Investment.”

According to the market track, China will account for 64% of the total equipment market from 2018 to 2022 while Korea will account for 29%. Thus, the two countries will lead the OLED equipment investment. In 2018 and 2019, global panel makers are expected to invest the total amount of US$ 52.7 billion, which might be the largest scale.

<Overall equipment market share by country in 2018~2022>

In this market track, the overall equipment market analysis is categorized by equipment, process, company, generation, and substrate. The investment cost including logistic equipment and inspection equipment for each process was calculated, and the cost for touch related equipment was excluded for the market analysis.

In addition, ASP and quarterly sale revenue of each equipment are also described from 2016 to the second quarter of 2018, which will help the related companies to develop future direction, business strategy, and technology and market trend analysis.

Samsung Display’s 1Q 2018 shipment declined, but it is expected to recover in 2Q.

According to UBI Research’s first quarter display market track, Samsung Display’s OLED shipments for smart phones dropped to 88 million units, down 26.0% from the previous quarter, and 4.7% year-on-year decrease.

On the other hand, the sales revenue was US$ 5.37 billion, down 32.4% from the previous quarter and 30.4% year-on- year increase.

<Samsung Display’s sales performance of OLED for Smartphone, 1Q, 2018>

For rigid OLED, the utilization rate of rigid OLED mass production lines dropped in 1Q due to the keeping adoption of LCD in Samsung Electronics’ entry-level model and the decline in demand from Chinese set makers. For flexible OLED, its capacity utilization rate also declined due to falling demand from Apple and sluggish sales of Galaxy S series .

UBI Research mentioned, “In the first quarter of 2018, the sales were sluggish due to falling demand of set makers; however, the full-screen rigid OLED demand began to increase in April, and accordingly the utilization rate of rigid OLED production lines began to rise gradually. From June, the utilization rate is expected to recover to the previous year level. Also, the flexible OLED mass production lines will be likely to be in full operation since Samsung Electronics will start mass production of the next model and Apple will start mass production of new models.”

The overall OLED market was totaled as US $ 6.12 billion in the first quarter of 2018, of which the OLED market for smart phones was 91.1% and the market of OLED for TV was 5.7%.

The OLED market for smartphones is projected to reach 4.4 billion units in 2018, and Samsung Display is expected to hold a market share of 93.4%.

<2018 OLED market forecast>

Market for OLED materials and components is forecast to grow to US$37 billion in 2022.

In the 2018 OLED material and component report and Market Track published by UBI Research, the entire market for OLED materials and components market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 29% by 2022, forming a market of US$ 37 billion in 2022.

<Market forecast for OLED materials and components>

The overall OLED material and component market forecasted in this report is calculated based on the panel makers’ available capacity and includes all the materials and components for OLED production.

The total OLED material and component market is counted as US$ 9,794 million in 2017 and is expected to grow by 35% to US$ 13,264 million in 2018.

Major growth drivers are mentioned as capacity expansion of Samsung Display and LG Display inclusive of Gen6 flexible OLED mass production lines of Chinese panel makers.

UBI Research commented “Utilization of Samsung Display in the first quarter of 2018 was poor, but it is turning to normal from the second quarter, and LG Display and Chinese panel makers are also aiming to mass-produce this year. In particular, it will have a major impact on the growth of the materials and components market in 2018 whether Samsung Display’s A4, LG Display’s E5, E6 and BOE’s B7 lines will be in full operation.”

In the 2018 OLED material and component report, the market is forecast for 20 kinds of major materials and components used in OLED for mobile devices and large-area OLED, including substrate glass, carrier glass, PI and organic materials for TFT. In addition, the report covers industry trends and key issues related to the core materials, while Market Track forecasts the expected purchase volume and purchase amount by panel makers.

Foldable OLED device is nearing commercialization. What are the technical challenges to be solved?

Attentions are growing for the foldable smartphone since it can provide a wider screen and higher resolution than the display of conventional smartphones, while maintaining the portability of the smartphone. The foldable smartphone is a smartphone when folded, and it becomes a tablet PC when it is unfolded. Following Samsung Electronics, Huawei is also aiming to launch a smartphone with a foldable display this year.

Yi Choong-Hoon, president of UBI Research, said, “Ideal foldable displays require such kind of reliability that there is no problem even with more than 300,000 times folding at the bending radius of 1R or less. For this, some changes or innovations are needed in the material and structure of the display.

In the ‘2018 OLED Component & Material Report’ published by UBI Research on May 21, 2018, the key issues and development trends for foldable OLED display with a bending radius of 1R are described together with the classified contents of structural change to secure reliability at thickness reduction and alternative material development.

<Change in OLED panel thickness accoding to bending radius, 2018 OLED component & material report, UBI Research>

In addition, the report covers the application status, development trends, and market forecast of key components and materials for rigid OLED and flexible OLED for mobile device, and large-area OLED for TV. Thus, it is helpful for the related part and material companies to develop their future directions, establish business strategies, and analyze technology and market trends.

BLUE OLED, is rapidly emerging as a competitor of WRGB OLED

In the premium TV market, the share of OLED TVs is steadily increasing, and the price gap with LCD is gradually decreasing. As a result, LCD TV (QD-LCD TV) companies using quantum dot technology are sluggish in the premium TV market.

OLED TV uses white OLED and OLED panel with color filter (hereafter referred to as WRGB OLED), which is mass-produced only by LG Display.

Samsung Display is known to actively develop blue OLED + QDCF (blue OLED), which is one of the technologies to compete with WRGB OLED in the premium TV market.

UBI Research predicted that Samsung Display would implement blue OLED + QDCF with top emission method and it would be more advantageous to implement 8K and BT 2020 than WRGB in its ‘2018 OLED Material Industry Report’ published on April 18.

<Expected stack structure for Blue OLED, 2stack (left), 3stack (right), 2018 AMOLED emitting materials Report, UBI Research>

8K and BT2020 are to be adopted for the premium TVs. Also, the development of blue materials is expected to be aggressively progressed according to Samsung Display’s development of blue OLED. The blue material currently used in OLED is a fluorescent material that is insufficient in the efficiency and lifetime than phosphorescent material used in red and green. Blue phosphorescent materials have been developed continuously but they have not been applied to mass production due to the scarcity of materials and technical barriers. Therefore, blue fluorescent materials are stacked two or more times to improve efficiency and lifetime for large area OLED, and blue OLED is expected to use more than 2 stack structure.

 

With this trend, the market for blue emitting materials is expected to continue to grow. In 2017, blue materials (host and dopant) formed market of US$ 70 million.  According to the 2018 AMOLED emitting material market track published by UBI Research, blue material is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 32% by 2022 and reach US $ 272 million sales.

<Blue material (host and dopant) market forecast, 2018 AMOLED emitting materials Market track>

Can BLUE OLED be used for OLED TV?

Samsung Display selected blue OLED + QDCF (blue OLED) as next generation display technology following LCD TV, and started the necessary development.

Blue OLED is a technology, in which blue light emitted from blue OLED passes through a quantum dot color filter to represent red and green colors (b). The WRGB OLED used in OLED TV is a method in which white light passes through a color filter and implements RGB colors (a).

The ‘2018 OLED Materials Industry Report’ published by UBI Research on April 18 describes whether blue OLED, which Samsung Display has started to develop, can become TV OLED panels. The expected development direction and performance (efficiency and lifetime) of blue OLED + QDCF are analyzed. In particular, current status and development trends (fluorescence, phosphorescence, TADF) of blue emitting material, which is the core material of blue OLED, are covered.

Since blue OLED of Samsung Display is top emission type, the aperture ratio is increased by about 70% compared to the bottom emission, which emits light in the TFT direction, so that 8K resolution and high brightness are realized better than the conventional WRGB OLED. In addition, it is expected to reach BT. 2020, the UHD color standard, which was established by the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) in 2012, using QD material with high color reproduction rate as color filter.

In the future premium TV market, 8K and BT. 2020 are necessary conditions for display. WRGB OLED is also being actively developed to implement 8K and BT2020. Attention is focused on the impact of the development of blue OLED in the premium TV market led by WRGB OLED.

In addition, the report analyzes the market status and development trends of the related companies, including overall technology development directions and key issues for new materials such as soluble OLED materials and near IR materials.

UBI Research, just published ‘AMOLED Manufacturing Process’ report on latest AMOLED process

Recently the smart phone market is led by smart phones that use full screen OLED, and premium TV market is dominated by OLED TVs. In order to realize full screen OLED and UHD resolution large area OLED, different structures and processes have been applied, but it is difficult for the display related companies to grasp them in detail.

UBI Research just published the ‘AMOLED Manufacturing Process’ report, which analyzes the latest processes both for small and medium- sized OLED and large area OLED.

 

As the report analyzes the structure and manufacturing process by dividing AMOLED into small & medium size and large area with additional description and diagram for the inspection process of small & medium sized AMOLED, it is expected to help to understand the overall structure and core processes of AMOLED.

 

Chapter 1 of the report covers the overall structure both for small & medium sized OLED and large area OLED, ranging from AMOLED substrates to modules. In Section 2, the double poly (polyimide) process, LTPS TFT & oxide TFT process, pixel process both for OLED & solution processed OLED, process by encapsulation, cell process, and module process are sequentially analyzed. In Chapter 3, the inspection & measurement process of small and medium-sized AMOLED is described with all the list of major equipment. Also, Samsung Display’s pad bending process both for 9-mask LTPS TFT and 13-mask LTPS TFT, and LG Display’s oxide TFT process for large-area OLED are described from Chapter 4. Since the equipment and materials used at each process are analyzed in detail, the report is very helpful to understand easily the latest TFT process.

<Rigid OLED structure, add on type>

Changes in OLED panel market for smartphones

According to the ‘2018 1Q AMOLED Display Market Track’ published by UBI Research, OLED panel shipments for smartphones are projected to grow at an annual average growth rate of 15.8%, from 450 million units in 2018 to 850 million units by 2022. This is a 9.6% decline from the CAGR 25.4% expected in the fourth quarter of 2017.

<Shipment forecast of OLED panel for smartphones >

The reason shipment forecast of OLED panels for smartphones is declined compared with 4Q,2017 is because smartphone trends have been reflected recently. The smartphone market is sluggish due to the prolonged replacement period of smartphones and the lack of new technology. In addition, the average size of smartphones has enlarged faster than expected, and the size of smartphones is expected to increase gradually with the anticipation for the launch of foldable OLEDs, leading to a slowdown in the shipment growth.

 

For flexible OLED, ASPs have risen due to the lack of supply, caused by mainly dependent on Samsung Display, and Chinese set makers are burdened by its high prices. As low-priced full-screen LCDs are emerging, it is forecasted that demand for rigid OLEDs will decline since Chinese set makers are adopting more LCDs than OLEDs in rigid smartphones.

Panel makers in Korea and China have aggressively invested in the Gen6 OLED line in 2016 and 2017. Starting this year, however, they are reviewing the investment and operation time frame of mass production lines, with looking into the smartphone demand. As OLED panels for smartphones account for more than 90% of the total OLED panel market, it is an important factor for the investment flow of panel makers.

 

Meanwhile, ‘2018 1Q AMOLED Display Market Track’ is based on the market performance data and projected system that UBI Research has accumulated over 15 years. It consists of 8 (eight) modules in total: Panel cost analysis, Market forecast, Supply and demand analysis, Market performance (sales), Competitiveness analysis of panel makers, ASP, Supply chain analysis and investment & Mass production line status.