“Quarterly OLED Market Report for TV” was just published.

UBI Research (CEO, Yi Choong-Hoon) just published [Quarterly OLED Market Report for TV].

OLED TV still accounts for only a few percent of the global TV market. However, as OLED TVs are in the premium TV market area of more than US$ 2,000, the sales volume is gradually increasing.

In the second quarter of 2018, the substrate area of the OLED lines for TV is 1.12Mm2, which is unchanged from the first quarter. Due to the expansion of the Guangzhou plant in China, the annual substrate area in 2018 is to be 19.48Mm2, 31% increase from 14.8Mm2 in 2017.

As OLED TV sales in the premium TV market has continued to improve, the sales of WRGB OLED panels in the second quarter totaled US$ 460 million, up 21% from US$ 367 million in the previous quarter.

 

WRGB OLED panel shipments were 720,000 units in the second quarter, up 19% from last quarter’s 580,000 units.

 

The market for OLED panel for TV in 2018 is projected to be US$ 2.18 billion, which is expected to increase by 33% compared to US$ 1.45 billion last year.

 

The cost of manufacturing OLED panels for the second quarter was US$ 432 for 55-inch UHD OLED panels, while the 65-inch and 778-inch OLED panels cost US$ 967 and US $ 1,067 respectively. Only 77-inch panels are expected to be profitable.

 

The report covers production scale, market performance, market forecast, demand- supply analysis, and manufacturing cost analysis for production of OLED panels for TV. It is scheduled to be published quarterly.

“Quarterly OLED Market Report for Smartphones” was just published.

UBI Research (CEO, Yi Choong-Hoon) just published [Quarterly OLED Market Report for Smart Phones]. In the second quarter of 2018, the sales of OLED for smart phones totaled US$ 5.76billion, accounting for 88.9% of the total OLED market.

 

In the report, the market performance, cost, and investment status of smartphone OLED are analyzed quarterly to provide supply-demand data and market forecast. Understanding the changes in the OLED market for smartphones in the rapidly changing OLED industry can predict the future direction of the OLED market.

 

The substrate area of the global OLED lines for Smartphone manufacturing for the second quarter was 3.49 Mm2, up 6.4% from 3.27 Mm2 in the first quarter and 30.1% higher than the second quarter of 2017. In 2018, the annual substrate area is to be 14.8 Mm2, a 27% increase from 10.8 Mm2 in 2017.

 

Through the analysis of the performance in the first and second quarter of 2018, the report predicts OLED market for smartphones to reach US$ 28.5 billion in 2018, up 14.9% compared to US$ 24.2 billion in 2017. According to the report, the operating rate of Samsung Display’s A3 line, which leads the OLED panel market, has gradually risen since the second quarter. Its operating rate is expected to be more than 70% in the third quarter. As such, the display material market, including emitting materials, will continue to grow. In the second quarter, OLED sales of Korean companies amounted to US$ 6.28 billion, accounting for 96.9% of total sales. China, which ranked the second, recorded only 3% share, with the sales of US$ 190 million.

 

LG Chem, Rapid growth in the second quarter emitting material market

According to the emitting material market track of UBI Research (President: Choong-Hoon, Yi), the second-quarter OLED emitting material market totaled US$ 230 million. Compared to the previous quarter, it increased by 19.3% and formed the same market as the second quarter of 2017. There was a concern about slow growth since the OLED panel sales for smartphones fell in the first quarter of the year, down 38.5% compared to the fourth quarter of the last year. However, the emitting material is also recovering due to the rising utilization rates of Samsung Display and the start of POLED production at LG Display.


Six companies such as Dow, Duksan Neolux, Idemitsu Kosan, LG Chem, Merck, and UDC were among the companies with sales exceeding US$ 20 million in the second quarter.

Among those companies, LG Chem posted the highest quarterly sales growth, up 35% from the previous quarter and up 26% from the same quarter last year. This is resulted from the start of LG Display’s POLED mass production and the related sales growth. Since LG Displays’ POLED is expected to start applying to Apple’s iPhone from the end of the year, LG Chem is anticipated to record the highest growth rate among emitting material makers in 2019.

How much will be the investment cost for 8Generation QD-OLED TV?

 

In the “2018 OLED Equipment Report” recently published by UBI Research, the required investment cost was analyzed for the QD-OLED that Samsung Display started to develop.

QD-OLED, which is being developed by Samsung Display, is a method of displaying three colors of RGB by separating green and red from the light emitted from blue OLED through QD (quantum dot) material. The light passing through the QD material once again passes through the color filter and displays a richer color. QD-OLED is similar to the manufacturing method of WDRGB OLED produced by LG Display. First, both companies use oxide TFTs. At WRGB OLED, blue is applied twice and red and green are deposited between them. In contrast, QD-OLED is fabricated by depositing only blue material twice. Both methods use the open mask with an empty center.

 

 

For both QD-OLED and WRGB OLED, the color filter manufacturing cost is assumed to be same; however, QD-OLED should be equipped with additional equipment to coat QD materials.

According to the report, it is expected that the investment cost is to be equal because the similar equipment can be used for module, cell, encapsulation and evaporator. Since WRGB OLED is bottom emission type, it is formed together when backplane is formed including TFT. However, QD-OLED adopts top emission method. A color filter is separately formed on the top glass substrate and the QD layer is patterned thereon. Therefore, QD-OLED requires higher investment cost than WRGB OLED.

The report describes that based on 8Generation 26K, the investment cost for QD-OLED is estimated to be US$ 1.1 billion, which is 1.03 times higher than WRGB OLED (US$ 1.07 billion). In contrast, the required investment cost to manufacture OLED by inkjet method, which JOLED is promoting commercialization, is projected as US$ 0.88 billion, which is to be about 80% of QD-OLED.

 

Dae Jeong YOON(ydj7211@ubiresearch.com)

UBI research just issued 2018 2Q AMOLED Display Market Tracks

UBI Research recently published “2Q18 AMOLED Display Market Tracks”, which includes market updates of the second quarter of 2018. The report covers OLED display panel makers’ investment status, OLED display market forecasts from 2018 to 2022, OLED demand and supply trends, and competitiveness analysis of OLED Smartphone business for Samsung Display and other OLED display panel makers.

The market update, published with the Excel spreadsheet, describes the production line status and the added line status through future investments of the 15 OLED display panel makers worldwide. Also, it describes not only the major OLED application market such as smart phones and TVs, but also the market forecast by country.

The demand for OLED mobile sets (including smart phones and smart watches) in the first quarter of 2018 dropped to 98 million units from 130 million units in the fourth quarter of last year, due to the lower-than-expected performance of the premium smartphone market, where Samsung Electronics’ Galaxy S series and Apple’s iPhone occupy most of the market. OLED mobile set market is to recover gradually until 3Q, when Apple’s new smartphone model is launched, and by the end of 2018, the demand is expected to recover as to the similar level of the same period of last year. In addition, Samsung Display is anticipated to have a positive impact on the recovery of the Smartphone market in the second half of the year by securing competitiveness by lowering the sales price of rigid OLED panel for mobile phone to about US$ 25 to compete with LCD in China.

 

Consumers’ smartphone replacement cycle is getting longer due to the reason that there is no revolutionary change in the new model compared to the past, and the Smartphone penetration in most of the countries except for India, South America and Africa is reaching the limit. Accordingly, the outlook for the downturn is mostly forecasted in the recent smartphone market. There is a growing interest in technology and design to apply a different form factor to revive the market. In this regard, Samsung Electronics’ foldable OLED smartphone, which is scheduled to be released later this year or early next year, is expected to create a new momentum. Attention is focused on whether a folding- type flexible display (Dynamic Flexible Display) will be succeeded as a new type of smartphone from the existing edge-type flexible display .(Static Flexible Display)

 

UBI Research predicts that the OLED Smartphone market will grow from 430 million units in 2018 to 900 million units in 2022, and the market for foldable OLED Smartphone is to be from about 1million units in 2019 to 18million units in 2022. This reflects the expansion of OLED panel production lines by panel makers such as LG Display and BOE, besides Samsung Display. It will be updated as new applications are developed in future and the Smartphone market moves forward.

In OLED panel market, OLED panel for Smartphone still occupies 91% of the whole market. Samsung Display has accounted for 90% of total OLED panel market performance and LG Display is followed with about 7.8% share.

OLED TVs, which are continuously increasing in demand worldwide compared to the Smartphone market, are expected to be in short supply this year. LG Display, the only OLED TV panel supplier, will continue to invest in production for the next five years. With the recent approval of new production facility for OLED TV panel in Guangzhou, the full-scale equipment move-in is expected this year. In Paju P10 investment plan, it was confirmed that LG Display will invest in OLED TV panel production line instead of LCD line investment which was examined before. Thus, the OLED TV market is projected to grow to US $ 5.6 billion.

 

Hana Oh (hanaoh@ubiresearch.com)

OLED equipment market is expected to reach US$ 31.5 billion in 2019

■ The total OLED equipment market is projected as US$ 106.7 billion in 2018-2022.

■ From 2018 to 2022, China is expected to account for 64% of the total investment while Korea will account for 29%.

The total OLED equipment market is projected as US$ 106.7 billion from 2018 to 2022.

According to the ‘1H18 AMOLED Equipment Market Track’ published by UBI Research, the total OLED equipment market is expected to reach US$ 106.7 billion in 2018-2022. The equipment market of 2018 is estimated to be a total of US $ 21.1 billion in, and the largest investment of US$ 31.5 billion is expected in 2019.

<2018~2022 OLED equipment market forecast>

Dae-Jeong Yoon, Researcher of UBI research said “In 2019 and 2020 of the next five years, Korea and China panel makers are key drivers for the investment. By 2019, Korean panel makers are likely to focus on large-area OLED investment and Chinese panel makers will focus on small and medium-sized flexible OLED Investment.”

According to the market track, China will account for 64% of the total equipment market from 2018 to 2022 while Korea will account for 29%. Thus, the two countries will lead the OLED equipment investment. In 2018 and 2019, global panel makers are expected to invest the total amount of US$ 52.7 billion, which might be the largest scale.

<Overall equipment market share by country in 2018~2022>

In this market track, the overall equipment market analysis is categorized by equipment, process, company, generation, and substrate. The investment cost including logistic equipment and inspection equipment for each process was calculated, and the cost for touch related equipment was excluded for the market analysis.

In addition, ASP and quarterly sale revenue of each equipment are also described from 2016 to the second quarter of 2018, which will help the related companies to develop future direction, business strategy, and technology and market trend analysis.

Samsung Display’s 1Q 2018 shipment declined, but it is expected to recover in 2Q.

According to UBI Research’s first quarter display market track, Samsung Display’s OLED shipments for smart phones dropped to 88 million units, down 26.0% from the previous quarter, and 4.7% year-on-year decrease.

On the other hand, the sales revenue was US$ 5.37 billion, down 32.4% from the previous quarter and 30.4% year-on- year increase.

<Samsung Display’s sales performance of OLED for Smartphone, 1Q, 2018>

For rigid OLED, the utilization rate of rigid OLED mass production lines dropped in 1Q due to the keeping adoption of LCD in Samsung Electronics’ entry-level model and the decline in demand from Chinese set makers. For flexible OLED, its capacity utilization rate also declined due to falling demand from Apple and sluggish sales of Galaxy S series .

UBI Research mentioned, “In the first quarter of 2018, the sales were sluggish due to falling demand of set makers; however, the full-screen rigid OLED demand began to increase in April, and accordingly the utilization rate of rigid OLED production lines began to rise gradually. From June, the utilization rate is expected to recover to the previous year level. Also, the flexible OLED mass production lines will be likely to be in full operation since Samsung Electronics will start mass production of the next model and Apple will start mass production of new models.”

The overall OLED market was totaled as US $ 6.12 billion in the first quarter of 2018, of which the OLED market for smart phones was 91.1% and the market of OLED for TV was 5.7%.

The OLED market for smartphones is projected to reach 4.4 billion units in 2018, and Samsung Display is expected to hold a market share of 93.4%.

<2018 OLED market forecast>

Market for OLED materials and components is forecast to grow to US$37 billion in 2022.

In the 2018 OLED material and component report and Market Track published by UBI Research, the entire market for OLED materials and components market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 29% by 2022, forming a market of US$ 37 billion in 2022.

<Market forecast for OLED materials and components>

The overall OLED material and component market forecasted in this report is calculated based on the panel makers’ available capacity and includes all the materials and components for OLED production.

The total OLED material and component market is counted as US$ 9,794 million in 2017 and is expected to grow by 35% to US$ 13,264 million in 2018.

Major growth drivers are mentioned as capacity expansion of Samsung Display and LG Display inclusive of Gen6 flexible OLED mass production lines of Chinese panel makers.

UBI Research commented “Utilization of Samsung Display in the first quarter of 2018 was poor, but it is turning to normal from the second quarter, and LG Display and Chinese panel makers are also aiming to mass-produce this year. In particular, it will have a major impact on the growth of the materials and components market in 2018 whether Samsung Display’s A4, LG Display’s E5, E6 and BOE’s B7 lines will be in full operation.”

In the 2018 OLED material and component report, the market is forecast for 20 kinds of major materials and components used in OLED for mobile devices and large-area OLED, including substrate glass, carrier glass, PI and organic materials for TFT. In addition, the report covers industry trends and key issues related to the core materials, while Market Track forecasts the expected purchase volume and purchase amount by panel makers.

Foldable OLED device is nearing commercialization. What are the technical challenges to be solved?

Attentions are growing for the foldable smartphone since it can provide a wider screen and higher resolution than the display of conventional smartphones, while maintaining the portability of the smartphone. The foldable smartphone is a smartphone when folded, and it becomes a tablet PC when it is unfolded. Following Samsung Electronics, Huawei is also aiming to launch a smartphone with a foldable display this year.

Yi Choong-Hoon, president of UBI Research, said, “Ideal foldable displays require such kind of reliability that there is no problem even with more than 300,000 times folding at the bending radius of 1R or less. For this, some changes or innovations are needed in the material and structure of the display.

In the ‘2018 OLED Component & Material Report’ published by UBI Research on May 21, 2018, the key issues and development trends for foldable OLED display with a bending radius of 1R are described together with the classified contents of structural change to secure reliability at thickness reduction and alternative material development.

<Change in OLED panel thickness accoding to bending radius, 2018 OLED component & material report, UBI Research>

In addition, the report covers the application status, development trends, and market forecast of key components and materials for rigid OLED and flexible OLED for mobile device, and large-area OLED for TV. Thus, it is helpful for the related part and material companies to develop their future directions, establish business strategies, and analyze technology and market trends.

BLUE OLED, is rapidly emerging as a competitor of WRGB OLED

In the premium TV market, the share of OLED TVs is steadily increasing, and the price gap with LCD is gradually decreasing. As a result, LCD TV (QD-LCD TV) companies using quantum dot technology are sluggish in the premium TV market.

OLED TV uses white OLED and OLED panel with color filter (hereafter referred to as WRGB OLED), which is mass-produced only by LG Display.

Samsung Display is known to actively develop blue OLED + QDCF (blue OLED), which is one of the technologies to compete with WRGB OLED in the premium TV market.

UBI Research predicted that Samsung Display would implement blue OLED + QDCF with top emission method and it would be more advantageous to implement 8K and BT 2020 than WRGB in its ‘2018 OLED Material Industry Report’ published on April 18.

<Expected stack structure for Blue OLED, 2stack (left), 3stack (right), 2018 AMOLED emitting materials Report, UBI Research>

8K and BT2020 are to be adopted for the premium TVs. Also, the development of blue materials is expected to be aggressively progressed according to Samsung Display’s development of blue OLED. The blue material currently used in OLED is a fluorescent material that is insufficient in the efficiency and lifetime than phosphorescent material used in red and green. Blue phosphorescent materials have been developed continuously but they have not been applied to mass production due to the scarcity of materials and technical barriers. Therefore, blue fluorescent materials are stacked two or more times to improve efficiency and lifetime for large area OLED, and blue OLED is expected to use more than 2 stack structure.

 

With this trend, the market for blue emitting materials is expected to continue to grow. In 2017, blue materials (host and dopant) formed market of US$ 70 million.  According to the 2018 AMOLED emitting material market track published by UBI Research, blue material is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 32% by 2022 and reach US $ 272 million sales.

<Blue material (host and dopant) market forecast, 2018 AMOLED emitting materials Market track>