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UBI research just issued 2018 2Q AMOLED Display Market Tracks

UBI Research recently published “2Q18 AMOLED Display Market Tracks”, which includes market updates of the second quarter of 2018. The report covers OLED display panel makers’ investment status, OLED display market forecasts from 2018 to 2022, OLED demand and supply trends, and competitiveness analysis of OLED Smartphone business for Samsung Display and other OLED display panel makers.

The market update, published with the Excel spreadsheet, describes the production line status and the added line status through future investments of the 15 OLED display panel makers worldwide. Also, it describes not only the major OLED application market such as smart phones and TVs, but also the market forecast by country.

The demand for OLED mobile sets (including smart phones and smart watches) in the first quarter of 2018 dropped to 98 million units from 130 million units in the fourth quarter of last year, due to the lower-than-expected performance of the premium smartphone market, where Samsung Electronics’ Galaxy S series and Apple’s iPhone occupy most of the market. OLED mobile set market is to recover gradually until 3Q, when Apple’s new smartphone model is launched, and by the end of 2018, the demand is expected to recover as to the similar level of the same period of last year. In addition, Samsung Display is anticipated to have a positive impact on the recovery of the Smartphone market in the second half of the year by securing competitiveness by lowering the sales price of rigid OLED panel for mobile phone to about US$ 25 to compete with LCD in China.

 

Consumers’ smartphone replacement cycle is getting longer due to the reason that there is no revolutionary change in the new model compared to the past, and the Smartphone penetration in most of the countries except for India, South America and Africa is reaching the limit. Accordingly, the outlook for the downturn is mostly forecasted in the recent smartphone market. There is a growing interest in technology and design to apply a different form factor to revive the market. In this regard, Samsung Electronics’ foldable OLED smartphone, which is scheduled to be released later this year or early next year, is expected to create a new momentum. Attention is focused on whether a folding- type flexible display (Dynamic Flexible Display) will be succeeded as a new type of smartphone from the existing edge-type flexible display .(Static Flexible Display)

 

UBI Research predicts that the OLED Smartphone market will grow from 430 million units in 2018 to 900 million units in 2022, and the market for foldable OLED Smartphone is to be from about 1million units in 2019 to 18million units in 2022. This reflects the expansion of OLED panel production lines by panel makers such as LG Display and BOE, besides Samsung Display. It will be updated as new applications are developed in future and the Smartphone market moves forward.

In OLED panel market, OLED panel for Smartphone still occupies 91% of the whole market. Samsung Display has accounted for 90% of total OLED panel market performance and LG Display is followed with about 7.8% share.

OLED TVs, which are continuously increasing in demand worldwide compared to the Smartphone market, are expected to be in short supply this year. LG Display, the only OLED TV panel supplier, will continue to invest in production for the next five years. With the recent approval of new production facility for OLED TV panel in Guangzhou, the full-scale equipment move-in is expected this year. In Paju P10 investment plan, it was confirmed that LG Display will invest in OLED TV panel production line instead of LCD line investment which was examined before. Thus, the OLED TV market is projected to grow to US $ 5.6 billion.

 

Hana Oh (hanaoh@ubiresearch.com)

[Analyst Column] LCD Industry Administration to Worsen after 3 Years

Choong Hoon Yi, Chief Analyst, UBI Research

BOE is intending to carry out a large amount of investment in order to operate Gen10.5 LCD line from 2018. Meanwhile, key set makers including Apple, Samsung Electronics, LG Electronics, and Panasonic are devising strategy to move from LCD to OLED for smartphone and premium TV displays. As such, it is becoming more likely for the LCD industry to be in slump from 2018.

At present, the area where LCD industry can create profit is LTPS-LCD for smartphone. The forecast smartphone market for this year is approximately 15 billion units. Of this, Samsung Electronics and Apple are occupying 20% and 15% of the market respectively. OLED equipped units are less than 2 billion.

However, from 2018 the conditions change greatly. Firstly, Apple, which has been using LCD panel only, is estimated to change approximately 40% of the display to OLED from 2017 earliest and 2018 latest. Apple is testing flexible OLED panels of JDI, LG Display, and Samsung Display, and recommending them to invest so flexible OLED can be applied to iPhone from 2017. The total capa. Is 60K at Gen6. As new investments for Gen6 line of Samsung Display and LG Display are expected to be carried out from 2016, supply is theoretically possible from 2017.

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If 5inch flexible OLED is produced from Gen6 line, under the assumption of 50% yield at 60K capa. 65 million units can be produced annually, and approximately 1 billion units if the yield is 80%. If Apple’s iPhone shipment in 2017 is estimated to be around 2.7 billion units, within the 50-60% yield range approximately 25% of the display is changed to OLED from LCD, and if yield reaches 80% around 40% will change. The companies that are supplying Apple with LCD for smartphone, LG Display, JDI, and Sharp, are expected to show considerable fall in sales and business. These 3 companies could be reduced to deficit financial structure just from Apple’s display change

Furthermore, as Apple is not producing low-priced phones, under the assumption that future iPhone could all have OLED display, Apple could cause the mobile device LCD industry to stumble after 3 years.

Samsung Electronics also is gradually changing Galaxy series display to OLED from LCD. Of the forecast 2015 shipment of 3 billion units, 50%, 1.5 billion units, has OLED display, but Samsung Electronics is expected to increase flexible OLED and rigid OLED equipped products in future. Particularly, as Apple is pushing for flexible OLED application from 2017, Samsung Electronics, whose utilizing OLED as the main force, is estimated to increase flexible OLED usage more than Apple. It is estimated that all Galaxy series product displays will be changed to OLED from 2019.

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Under these assumptions, of the estimated smartphone market in 2020 of approximately 20 billion units, Samsung Electronics and Apple’s forecast markets’ 7 billion could be considered to use OLED.

Samsung Display is strengthening supply chain of set companies using their OLED panels. Samsung Display is supplying OLED panels to diverse companies such as Motorola and Huawei as well as Samsung Electronics, and also expected to supply rapidly rising Xiaomi from 2016. If smartphone display is swiftly changed to OLED from LCD from 2017, Chinese display companies that are currently expanding TFT-LCD lines are to be adversely affected.

Additionally, in the premium TV market, LG Electronics mentioned that they will focus on OLED TV industry at this year’s IFA2015. As a part of this, LG Display is planning to expand the current Gen8 34K to 60K by the end of next year. Furthermore, in order to respond to the 65inch market, Gen9.5 line investment is in consideration. In the early 2015, Panasonic commented that they were to withdraw from TV business but changed strategy with new plans of placing OLED TV on the market in Japan and Europe from next year.

As Samsung can no longer be disconnected from the OLED TV business, there are reports of investment for Gen8 OLED for TV line in 2016. Although OLED TV market is estimated to be approximately 350 thousand units this year, in 2016, when Panasonic joins in, it is expected to expand to 1.2 million units. The OLED TV’s market share in ≥55inch TV market is estimated to be only 4% but in premium TV market it is estimated to be significant value of ≥10%.

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If Samsung Display invests in Gen8 OLED for TV line in 2016, from H2 2017 supply to Samsung Electronics is possible. As OLED Gen8 line’s minimum investment has to be over 60K to break even, it can be estimated that Samsung Display will invest at least 60K continuously in future.

Under these conditions, LCD industry can only be in crisis. Firstly, it becomes difficult for Sharp to last. Sharp, which is supplying TFT-LCD for Apple’s iPhones and LCD for Samsung Electronics’ TV, will lose key customers. Secondly, BOE, AUO, and JDI, the companies selling LCD panels to these companies, are not ready to produce OLED and therefore damage is inevitable.

BOE is carrying out aggressive investment with plans to lead the display industry in future with operation of Gen10.5 LCD line. Therefore, from 2018, as the main cash cow items disappear, administration pressure could increase.

Korean TV Industry, Where to Go?

Choong-hoon Yi, Chief Analyst/ UBI Research /ubiyi@ubiresearch.co.kr

Korean TV industry, according to recent reports by media, is showing a red light not being able to escape the deficit structure.

Samsung Electronics and LG Electronics possess high market share in costly premium TV market. However, in 30inch grade market, the two companies struggle against economically priced sets. In order to maintain sales, Samsung Elec. and LG Elec. are managing diverse product portfolio but business profit keep falling. Due to this, LCD panel stocks produced by Samsung Display and LG Display are steadily increasing.

LCD panel business is sinking into a pit.

What is the reason that Korea’s LCD TV and LCD business values can only become worse?

This can be forecast from looking at Japan’s TV and LCD business. Until the early 2000s, Japan was one of the leaders in electronics. However, Japan’s TV business is gradually dying out. Japan’s leading companies, Sony and Panasonic’s TV business began to be deteriorate because of Korean mid-low price products. In succession, Sony ended up spinning off the TV business, and Panasonic stopped TV business other than for domestic supply. Korean TV companies began to dominate the market. However, only a few years since then, Korean TV industry is losing commercial value, pushed aside by mid-low price products manufactured by China and others.

Second is display investment. As Japanese TV industry began to crumble, Japanese display companies had no choice but to stop the investment. The companies could not see a way to make profit through investment even if TV market grew as client companies’ panel purchasing power fell. Korea is the same. Samsung Elec. and LG Elec.’s TV business profitability deterioration led toward Samsung Display and LG Display’s halting the investment. On the other hand, Chinse display companies began Gen10.5 line investment. TV industry relies on assembly business and business network and therefore initial investment cost is low. In comparison, display industry is high risk as it requires large scale investment from early stages. If the business profit falls without investment cost return, companies face great loss and business closure is also not easy.

The third reason that Japanese TV companies are dying out is because they could not produce premium TV. Sony, which lost its competitiveness in LCD TV, tried to strengthen its market leadership through 4K TV. However, the brand value was already down and with the lack of marketing value, Sony easily gave up the market to companies in pursuit such as Samsung Elec. and LG Elec. LCD TV already had no difference in quality whether it was produced by a Korean or Japanese company, and brand value order had switched. LCD TV quality produced by Chinese companies is already reached the top. They are no longer companies who produce cheaper knockoffs. Furthermore, LCD panel production technology of Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and China can now be deemed equal.

The final reason that stops Japanese TV business from securing market is that they failed to suggest differentiation point in premium TV. Fundamentally, differentiation is not possible for LCD TV. The biggest differentiation factors in the current TV market are picture quality and design. Any company can produce thin LCD TV and curved LCD TV. Panel size, resolution, and QD-LED using color gamut that LCD can actualize can no longer be differentiated technology. The difference of LCD panel and TV manufacturing technology between Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and China is already within a year. No matter what kind of product is released, market control has one year of expiration period. Considering the promotion period required in the market is approximately 6 months, the period where profit can be made is shortened even further.

So what is the solution for the Korean TV industry to survive?

As I have mentioned dozens of times for several years, what is left is OLED TV. What LCD cannot do in terms of picture quality and design, with OLED it is possible. Therefore, only the non-LCD products can enjoy the key factors of differentiation in premium TV market.

Existing premium TV is IPTV, a market that Japanese TV companies have been pursuing since early 2000s. Internet connection is possible through TV and allows for exchange of information in both directions. The basic concept of IPTV is watching TV while searching the information on TV via internet. But how useful is this concept at present? The usefulness of IPTV is becoming increasingly low as smartphone is used to search information, use the internet, and even watch TV. With no reason to use the internet via TV, TV companies should seriously consider whether TV with high white brightness is really needed. Rather than white TV with high brightness, it is time to place more importance in the functions of the TV itself. TV screen only uses 20-30% of full white brightness. Films, with outdoor shooting, falls under 20%, and for contents shot at night, black is more important.

Considering ‘blackness’ and design, anyone can find where the solution lies. If the foolish notion of trying to make OLED as bright as LCD is abandoned, there is hope.

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LG OLED UHD TV, SID 2015

 

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Samsung OLED UHD TV, IFA 2013

 

White OLED Display Market to Grow Rapidly to 150 Million Units Production in 2020

Large size OLED TV production is one of the hot issues within the display market. Although OLED has long been a focus for the next generation display, the market share of OLED display is still low. According to UBI Research, a market research company, despite the continued increase in OLED panel production volume and application scope, the point when it moves toward consumer market from producer market will be another leap for the display industry.

UBI Research’s White OLED Display Annual Report (published April 15, 2015) notes that mass production actualization of large size display using RGB structured OLED panel has not been possible due to the dead space from drooped effect. Therefore, UBI Research analyzed that the additional processes and investment cost in order to improve this increases the production cost resulting in decreased competitiveness.

Currently, OLED panel with WRGB structure is being regarded as the only technology that can achieve large size display. As key production companies revealed in SID 2014, concentrated efforts in WRGB OLED research and production resulted in approx. 80% of target yield. In 2015, supply rate is estimated to be 600 thousand units, a 40% increase from 2014, and 1.6 million units in 2016. Chinese key panel companies, led by AUO and BOE, also possess pilot lines for large area WRGB OLED panel mass production including Gen8. (Source: White OLED Display Annual Report, UBI Research)

Solution process applied technology is being developed in close pursuit of WRGB OLED, but UBI Research surmises that it will take 3~4 years for the active mass production competing with efficiency and merits of WRGB structure.

UBI Research forecast WRGB OLED’s unrivaled path will continue for another 5 years or so with approx. 150 million units of WRGB OLED display production out of over 1,000 million OLED display units in 2020. Large size white OLED display panel for TV market is expected to record approx. 1.6 million units in 2016 and grow to produce US$ 13,759M in revenue in 2020 (figures 1, 2).

If the selection of WRGB OLED can solve the RGB structure’s limit in large area panel mass production, possible active OLED TV production is anticipated. With the publication of UBI Research’s report the timing of this is expected to be a point of much discussion. Additionally, further analysis is needed on whether WRGB OLED is really the only technology for large size display, and if so for how long WRGB OLED’s peerless growth can last.
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‘The 1st OLED KOREA Conference ‘ by UBI Research

A Place for Discussion about OLED : The future business of Display Industry

‘The 1st OLED KOREA Conference ‘ by UBI Research

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The international Business Conference highlighting the present and future outlook of Organic Lighting-Emitting Diode(OLED) is held.

“UBI Research(the president, Choong hoon Yi)” specialized in OLED industry, has announced that “The 1st OLED KOREA Conference” will take a place 2nd of April, 2015 at The Korea Science and Technology Centre(SC Convention) located in Yeoksam-Dong, Gangnam- Gu.

 

This event’s main agenda is to review the current issue and to figure out the best practice to response it as OLED is becoming more widely used especially in TV, Automotive vehicle, Lighting, Smart phone etc.

 

Choong hoon Yi, the president of UBI Research will provide a perspective of the future of Flexible OLED as well as the factors why OLED TV will lead the market even though the technology for LCD is still continuously improving.

The attendees and the president, Choong hoon Yi will together have an open discussion about the current situation and future where the businesses in OLED industry are struggling.

Ki-Yong Lee, the Vice president of Samsung Display will present “the past, present and future of AMOLED Display” on this conference.

Xiuqi Huang, the CEO of Visionox R&D Centre and KSFPD will explain the whole process from researching and developing OLED Display to its production.

Also Won Gyun Youn, the team manager of OLED TV Product Planning, LG Display plans a speech about “the commercial possibilities of OLED TV”, and Chung-Seock Kang, the Vide president of KCRP will focus on “the development status of plastic substrate for Flexible Display”.

In addition, the overview of OLED display and lighting industry in Japan(Analysis Atelier Corporation, Dr. Hisashi Hattori), ▲ Gas Transmission-rate measuring system[OMEGATRANS](O-WELL Corporation, Shinya Higashio), ▲the present and prospect of AMOLED(Shanghai Tianma AMOLED Co., Ltd. , Special Assistant to General Manager Alan Huang), ▲Technologies for Efficiency Enhancement in OLED(ETRI, Dr. Jeong-Ik Lee), ▲Hybrid purification technology for OLED(KITECH, Principal Researcher Dr. Tae-Won Kim), ▲Key Technology of 8G In-line Deposition System for OLED TV(YAS, Director Dr. Myung Woon Choi), ▲the competitiveness and market forecast of OLED industry(Samsung Securities, Senior Analyst Jung Hoon Chang), ▲the current status and key issues of Quantum dot LD display technology(Seoul National University, Prof. Changhee Lee), ▲OLED Material development trend and the achievement(Doosan corp, Team Leader Dr. Ta Hyung Kim), ▲nationwide support for OLED R&D and its strategy of the key countries(KIT, Dr. Jeongno Lee) will be covered throughout the conference.

 

After the conference, there will be “VIP Dinner Gala” hosted by UBI Research where the experts, executives and researchers from a number of business in OLED industry, institutes and academia, shall have a warm place for networking and communication.

 

UBI Research is planning to hold the international business conference every year and the 1st OLED KOREA Conference will be a start. The registration can be made on the company website : www.ubiresearch.co.kr

AMOLED Panel Market, to Reach US$ 46 Billion by 2020

2014 was the year preparing a platform to develop the OLED industry in full scale.

 There was a prevalent doubt in the industry until 2014 concerning whether the OLED TV is able to break into the market or not. However, as LG Electronics successfully released the UHD OLED TV, the set manufactures were classified with the companies against LG and incapable of producing the OLED TV. Under this circumstance, the majority of TV set manufacturers including Samsung Electronics exhibited the Quantum dot (QD) BLU LCD TV at CES2015. The night view screen which was the exhibition concept only appeared on the OLED TV was employed on the QD LCD TV chasing the high contrast ratio just like the OLED TV.

In the display for a mobile device, the OLED succeeded in establishing an exclusive market with G Flex2 and Galaxy Note Edge with emphasis on the flexibility feature that LCD cannot even attempt to imitate.

According to the ‘’2015 OLED Display Annual Report’’ published by UBI Research on the 10th, the total revenue has decreased by 4% compared to the previous year due to the AMOLED panel shipments cut resulting from the low sales of Galaxy S5 in 2014.

 

Is the OLED industry already in crisis?

Though the OLED industry got wet with rain for a while in 2014, it will begin to solidify its place in 2015. Flexible OLED and TV are the alternatives.

UBI Research methodically analyzed and took a close look at the future of flexible OLED on the ‘’2015 OLED Display Annual Report’’. There are a number of display manufacturers developing products in view of that the rollable display is the final stage of a flexible display. But if the rollable display is to be applied on a mobile device, the cultural components are to go back to the analog age and in terms of technology, it may cause a heating problem as all parts excluding the display are concentrated on the body. For that reason, UBI Research prospected that the rollable product will be used on a large movable screen type display rather than on a mobile device.

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Also the ‘’2015 OLED Display Annual Report” of UBI Research forecasts that the AMOLED panel market will grow at a CAGR of 30% reaching US$ 46 billion by 2020. Assuming the OLED panel for TV and tablet PC will take the sales share of 30% respectively in 2020, the report predicted that the key application for the OLED panel market will be a TV and a tablet PC following a smart phone.

The growth of AMOLED panel market is anticipated to accelerated after 2017 given that Chinese manufactures are also likely to invest in full scale between 2016 and 2017 to previse the Korea’s monopoly of AMOLED market.

 

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<AMOLED Panel Market Prospect>

2015 Samsung Electronics TV Marketing Strategy Analysis: Samsung is a genius of global marketing as expected

Yi Choong-hoon /Chief Analyst / UBI Research / ubiyi@ubiresearch.co.kr

The product cited to pay close attention at this CES2015 was QD-BLU LCD TV. Exhibiting QD-BLU LCD TV at IFA 2014, the Chinese set makers already made it clear that it will be a new product to lead the Chinese market in 2015. The Chinese companies released 4K TV in the market for 2013 and it took about 60% of the world TV market in 2014.

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Source: CES2015 Pre-press Conference

Mr. Koenig, the Industry Analysis Director of CEA, forecasted at CES 2015 pre-press event that the 57% of the market which is 13 million units will be in China by 2015.

Based on the domestic markets, the Chinese set companies are moving fast to secure the names implying the term QD and prepare PR and marketing strategies in order to lead the QD-BLU LCD TV market.

Succeeded in distinguishing itself from other competing companies, let alone the best TV quality in the world, Samsung Electronics took first place in the TV market share and developed the name LED TV to more strongly appeal its difference with LCD TV to potential customers. Though it is not a TV operating with LED but only the CCFL for backlight was replaced with LED, it is analyzed that this naming strategy enabled securing its competitiveness for achieving differentiation.

The Chinese set companies developed numerous TV names with the term QD imitating the successful examples of Samsung Electronics.

However, Samsung Electronics outmaneuvered the Chinese set companies again with another surprising marketing strategy. It adorned the CES 2015 press conference with the unexpected name of SUHD TV. It is because the name LED TV had a market monopolizing effect for Samsung used it exclusively for more than a year but the name QD shared with other competing companies of lesser-known brands will lower Samsung’s value as an absolute TV brand.

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It seemed Samsung Electronics is emphasizing the notion of curved TV as a marketing factor to distinguish itself from other rival companies. The QD technology is a means to compete with OLED TV in terms of picture quality and it is analyzed that the curved TV is a key marketing strategy which already has secured the brand awareness as the world’s best design product in the curved TV market.