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How much will be the investment cost for 8Generation QD-OLED TV?

 

In the “2018 OLED Equipment Report” recently published by UBI Research, the required investment cost was analyzed for the QD-OLED that Samsung Display started to develop.

QD-OLED, which is being developed by Samsung Display, is a method of displaying three colors of RGB by separating green and red from the light emitted from blue OLED through QD (quantum dot) material. The light passing through the QD material once again passes through the color filter and displays a richer color. QD-OLED is similar to the manufacturing method of WDRGB OLED produced by LG Display. First, both companies use oxide TFTs. At WRGB OLED, blue is applied twice and red and green are deposited between them. In contrast, QD-OLED is fabricated by depositing only blue material twice. Both methods use the open mask with an empty center.

 

 

For both QD-OLED and WRGB OLED, the color filter manufacturing cost is assumed to be same; however, QD-OLED should be equipped with additional equipment to coat QD materials.

According to the report, it is expected that the investment cost is to be equal because the similar equipment can be used for module, cell, encapsulation and evaporator. Since WRGB OLED is bottom emission type, it is formed together when backplane is formed including TFT. However, QD-OLED adopts top emission method. A color filter is separately formed on the top glass substrate and the QD layer is patterned thereon. Therefore, QD-OLED requires higher investment cost than WRGB OLED.

The report describes that based on 8Generation 26K, the investment cost for QD-OLED is estimated to be US$ 1.1 billion, which is 1.03 times higher than WRGB OLED (US$ 1.07 billion). In contrast, the required investment cost to manufacture OLED by inkjet method, which JOLED is promoting commercialization, is projected as US$ 0.88 billion, which is to be about 80% of QD-OLED.

 

Dae Jeong YOON(ydj7211@ubiresearch.com)

AMOLED Display Market track – Investment & MP Line Status, just published

According to the investment trend data from AMOLED Display Market Track published by UBI research, the net area capacity of AMOLED production worldwide is expected to grow at a CAGR of 48% from 2018 to 2020.

As a result of analyzing the glass area based on the overall equipment capacity, the net area capacity of AMOLED mass production was 13 million square meters in 2017, however, it is expected to grow more than three times to 40 million square meters in 2020.

The net area capacity of AMOLED mass production area is projected to grow from 4 million square meters in 2017 to 8.4 million square meters in 2020, and that of small and medium-sized AMOLED is to be increased about 3.5 times from 9.1 million square meters in 2017 to 32 million square meters in 2020.

Analysis shows that LG Display’s net area capacity will be increased by 6.9 million square meters from 2018 to 2020, followed by Samsung Display with 5.8 million square meters increase and BOE with 4.4 million square meters increase.

On the other hand, when compared to the net area capacity for small and medium-sized AMOLED, Samsung Display is expected to increase by 5.8 million square meters, with the largest investment, followed by BOE of 4 million square meters’ increase and LG Display of 2.9 million square meters increase.

<Net area capacity of AMOLED mass production by company>

According to Lee Choong Hoon, CEO of UBI Research, LG Display’s AMOLED mass production line investment in China will lead LGD to more than double BOE’s AMOLED production capacity in terms of net area capacity in 2020, however, BOE is expected to overtake LG Display at small and medium-sized panel capacity in 2019.

AMOLED Display Market Track consists of investment data, market performance, market forecast, ASP, cost analysis, competitiveness analysis and so on. The investment data in this report contains details of the investment history of the panel companies, current status, and investment prospects for the next three years. Also, the useful data and graphs analyzed in various aspects are provided in excel format.

LG Display Q2 Earnings Analysis and Signification of Flexible OLED Investment

Choong-hoon Yi, Chief Analyst/ UBI Research /ubiyi@ubiresearch.co.kr

On July 23, LG Display announced its earnings results at LG Twin Towers in Yeouido, South Korea. LG Display reported that their Q2 sales recorded approximately US$ 5,700,000,000 with business profit of approximately US$ 420,000,000.

Although sales fell by approximately US$ 260,000,000 (-5%) compared to the previous quarter, it was an increase of US$ 620,000,000 (12%) compared to the year before. Business profit showed approximately US$ 210,000,000 decrease (-34%) QoQ, and YoY US$ 280,000,000 increase (206%).

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LG Display’s sales and business profit of Y/Yo (green line) showed U shape of trend of growth in previous 5 quarters but this quarter recorded a fall. It is analyzed that the growth could slow down from 2H 2015.

The drop of the LG display’s Y/Yo growth in this 2Q is much attributed to smartphone market’s slow down and TV market reduction. It is also estimated the panel price reduction due to Chinese display companies’ aggressive investment is reflected.

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For LG Display to stop the degrowth, mass production of products that are differentiated from competition, is urgently needed, away from LCD panel that is LGD’s current major business.

On the day, LG Display’s management announced approx. US$ 900,000,000 investment for Gen6 flexible OLED line in order to lead flexible OLED market. The investment location is Gumi factory. Investment location is Gumi factory with the initial investment of 7.5K. It is expected world’s second flexible OLED exclusive line will established following Samsung Display. It is anticipated that up to 15K will be established for this line.

Considering last year’s LG Display’s business profit was approx. US$ 1,100,000,000, the US$ 900,000,000 flexible OLED investment is very large. The investment decision must have been very difficult. However, the reasons for LG Display’s drastic flexible OLED exclusive line investment are because companies that produce LTPS-TFT LCD (LGD’s existing main market) is increasing, and because Samsung Display is already monopolizing rigid OLED market and therefore difficult to secure market share.

LG Display’s CFO Kim Sang-don explained that flexible OLED Gen6 line investment was decided at the board of directors meeting on July 22, and was made official on the morning of July 23. Kim added that the decision was reached so that LG Display can lead the OLED business in terms of technology and to occupy initial market in foldable and rollable technologies. He also commented the monthly capa. of the flexible OLED line will be 7.5K.

Regarding large area OLED panel, it was emphasized that this year’s panel production target remains to be 600,000 units and 1,500,000 units next year, same as the ones announced during the Q1 earnings results presentation. It was also revealed that 34K, approximately 9K higher than current capa., will be in operation in 2016. Addressing the concern of oversupply of next year’s 1,500,000 units while the OLD TV market is still small, LG Display suggested the solution of increasing the demand by active promotion from the second half of this year.

Despite the fall of mid to large size panels’ sales price, from the enlargement of sets and AIT technology applied sales performance, the business profit of approximately US$ 4,000 million was recorded. This is a 34% decrease compared to the previous quarter but a 199% increase from the same period in 2014. LG Display estimates that the sales will increase in the third quarter due to seasonal factors and panel’s enlargement trend.

Apple’s Next iPhone, Can Flexible OLED Be Applied?

Smartphone’s hardware performance has improved as much as possible and can no longer be the differential point within the market. Following this, Samsung’s Galaxy Note 4 Edge and S6 Edge, and LG’s G-flex series are differentiating themselves from existing products through flexible (plastic) AMOLED panel applied new designs and functions. Particularly, Galaxy S6 Edge’s higher than anticipated demand means that the ratio between total Galaxy S6 and S6 Edge demand was expected to be approximately between 8:2 and 7:3, but at present it is estimated to be 5:5. To meet this demand, Samsung Display began actively operating A3 line, and carried out investment to convert A2 rigid line to flexible line.

 

As interest in flexible OLED is rising within the next generation smartphone market, there is much talk that Apple will also apply flexible OLED to the next product. UBI Research’s Flexible OLED Annual Report, published on 18 June, analyzed Apple’s flexible OLED application potential and forecast scenario.

 

According to the Flexible OLED Annual Report, other than Samsung Display, LG Display is the only company with the technology to mass produce flexible AMOLED. Japan Display and AUO also possess flexible AMOLED production technology and with investment, mass production is analyzed to be possible. Therefore, for the Apple to apply flexible OLED to the iPhone series to be released in 2017, the Gen 6 flexible AMOLED line investment of LG Display, Japan Display, or AUO has to be carried out within 2015. However, as Japan Display and AUO’s mass production technology has not been verified, depending on the currently mass producing LG Display’s Gen 6 line investment timing the flexible OLED applied iPhone release date will be decided.

 

As the results of analyzing future model’s shipment based on the analysis of iPhone series’ sales progress so far, to meet the demand for Apple’s flexible AMOLED applied model’s shipment in 2020, approximately 170K monthly capa. by Gen 6 (considering operation and yield rate) is needed. Considering the recent trend of 20K capa. per 1 line, 8 or 9 flexible AMOLED line are required, and Apple’s future flexible AMOLED line investment is estimated to be actively carried out.

 

On the other hand, flexible AMOLED market is forecast to grow at 57% CAGR from 2016, and show approximately US$ 35,000 million revenue in 2020.

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<figure 1. Flexible AMOLED Panel Market Forecast>

Flexible OLED Annual Report

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The data used for this report has been compiled, based on OLED companies’ information, though wired/wireless communication or in person, and participation in exhibitions, conferences, and seminars with the organizers’ consent.

The market forecast data in this report has been collected through simulation based on expected operation rate and yield rate on the basis of UBI Research’s DB in accordance with investment trends and the technological level of Flexible AMOLED panel companies.

Detail

Executive Summary

A summary for quick understanding of entire report.

Issue Analysis

Smartphone’s hardware performance has improved as much as possible and can no longer be the differential point within the market. Therefore companies are active in differentiating their products through flexible AMOLED applied designs and functions. A key smartphone production company Samsung Elec. is selling Galaxy S6 Edge more than anticipated, and Apple is also considering flexible AMOLED for the next model.

However, as Samsung Display and LG Display are the only companies that can mass produce flexible AMOLED, the demand currently exceeds the supply.

This report analyzed the sales trend of Samsung Elec. and Apple so far and forecast estimated sales until 2020. Through analysis of panel companies’ flexible AMOLED line capa. and number of flexible AMOLED applied smartphone,  enabled forecast of key panel companies’ flexible AMOLED line investment timing.

Flexible AMOLED Panel History and Company Trend

Compiled released flexible AMOLED panels by year for quick understanding. Analyzed key panel companies trends, including Samsung Display and LG Display’s, to understand the industry’s direction.

Flexible AMOLED Panel Technical Skills Analysis

Based on the traits of flexible AMOLED panels so far released by Samsung Display, LG Display, Japan Display, AUO, and BOE, analyzed the technical skills by companies.

Flexible AMOLED Process Technology / Supply Chain

Samsung Display and LG Display’s mass produced flexible AMOLED panel structure and related equipment, supply chain related to material companies, and production process compilation.

Key Panel Companies’ Line Situation and Investment Trend

Based on the key flexible AMOLED panel companies’ mass production line situation and estimated investment plan of 2015-2017, this section was prepared to aid in business strategy planning of companies within flexible AMOLED value chain.

Development History Analysis of OLED Lighting Panel Companies

Analyzed key OLED lighting companies’ 2015 trends to understand overall situation of the industry.

Analyzed development history of key OLED lighting companies to understand OLED lighting development trend by company in order to deal with the market trend.

Flexible OLED Market Forecast (2015-2020)

Due to the Galaxy S6 Edge’s success and estimation that Apple’s next model will have flexible AMOLED panel, active flexible AMOLED investment by key panels is anticipated. Within OLED lighting, flexible is estimated to create high added value. With the active investment by key OLED lighting panel companies, including LG Chem., forecast it is estimated that market will actively grow. This report estimated, compared, and analyzed key OLED display and OLED lighting panel companies’ flexible OLED investment strategy and number of flexible OLED application. Through this, forecast flexible AMOLED panel, flexible OLED lighting market, and plastic substrate (key material for flexible OLED) market to aid in market analysis and business strategy planning.

Analysis of SID Papers (2013-2015)

Analyzed last 3 years of SID’s flexible OLED related papers from diverse perspectives. Based on the 3 years of technology development trend, enabled technology development forecast.

Flexible AMOLED Latest Technology Trend

Summarized and compiled flexible OLED related key papers revealed in SID 2015. Expected to aid in understanding of recent flexible OLED related issues and technology trend.

Format : PDF / Page : 143p / Updated : 2015. 6

Contents

1. Executive Summary

2. Issue Analysis
2.1 Apple iPhone’s Flexible AMOLED Application Potential and Investment Forecast
2.2 Samsung Display’s Flexible AMOLED Investment, A2 Conversion vs. New A3

3. Flexible AMOLED Panel History
3.1 LG Display
3.2 Samsung Display
3.3 Others

4. Trend Analysis of Flexible AMOLED Panel Companies
4.1 AUO
4.2 BOE
4.3 Japan Display
4.4 LG Display
4.5 Samsung Display
4.6 NVO
4.7 Others

5. Flexible AMOLED Panel Technical Skills Analysis

6. Flexible AMOLED Process Technology
6.1 LG Display
6.2 Samsung Display

7. Flexible AMOLED Panel Supply Chain
7.1 LG Display
7.2 Samsung Display

8. Key Panel Companies’ Line Situation and Investment Trend

9. Flexible OLED Lighting History

10. Trend Analysis of Flexible OLED Lighting Companies
10.1 LG Chem.
10.2 Konica Minolta
10.3 Osram
10.4 Others

11. Flexible OLED Market Forecast (2016-2020)
11.1 Outline
11.2 Flexible AMOLED Display Panel Market
11.3 Flexible OLED Lighting Panel Market
11.4 Flexible OLED Substrate Market

12. Analysis of SID Papers (2013-2015)
12.1 Outline
12.2 Total
12.3 by Company
12.4 by Topic
12.5 by Year
12.6 AI Analysis

13. Flexible AMOLED Latest Technology Trend

 

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Green Light Lit for Korean Display Industry?

Choong-hoon Yi, Chief Analyst/ UBI Research /ubiyi@ubiresearch.co.kr

Source: UBI Research

Source: UBI Research

 

After the weak showing of 5 quarters, Korea’s display panel industry is distinctively showing trend of growth. According to Samsung Electronics and LG Display’s 1Q 2015 performance announcements, the total sales of Korean display of 1Q is approximately US$ 12,900,000,000. Compared to the previous quarter (QoQ) the sales showed a decrease of 9%, but compared to the same quarter of the previous year (YoY) it is a 20% increase.

 

The worst quarter of the last 2 years, in terms of sales performance, was 4Q 2013. Generally, 4Q which includes Christmas season shows best performance but in 2013 the numbers actually fell compared to 3Q. However, 2014 showed the more general flow of continued sales increase every quarter.

 

According to this quarterly performance, it is analyzed that 2015 Korean display panel will fit the growth pattern; YoY of this quarter and previous quarter shows 14% and 20% of growth respectively.

 

Source: UBI Research

 

The reason for Korean display industry’s recovery trend is LG Display’s continued positive performance. Comparing the market share in sales between Samsung Display and LG Display, LG Display is leading the market for the past 3 quarters occupying more than 50%.

 

The elevation in LG Display’s performance is seen to be from Apple iPhone 6’s improved performance. However, as the iPhone 6’s shipment increases, it is likely that the rival Samsung Electronics’ Galaxy sales will fall, leading toward the possible slowdown of Samsung Display’s performance.

 

Samsung Display and LG Display’s success will inevitably differ depending on the market share of world leading smart phone companies that they supply, Samsung Electronics and Apple. However, the Korean display industry, no matter which Korean company comes ahead, is expected to continue its growth.

 

 

OLED Emitting Material Market, To Grow into US$ 560 Million in 2015

According to ‘’OLED Emitting Material Annual Report’’ published by UBI Research on 13 March, OLED emitting material market of 2015 is forecast to grow into US$ 560 million, a 16% growth compared to 2014. The report analyzed that active operation of LG Display’s E4 (M2) line, and operation of Samsung Display’s A3 line, and an increase in operation rate by existing A1 and A2 lines are the main cause for the market growth. Additionally, due to the intense mass production start by the latecomers and expansion of large area OLED panel market, the OLED emitting material market is estimated to grow by 35% compound annual growth rate, and form approx. US$ 2,500 million market in 2020.

 

In terms of countries, Korea occupies the most of 2015 OLED emitting material market with its market share of 90% or higher. However, from 2017, with China’s bold mass production, China is expected to hold market share of over 20% or higher. Thus, emitting material companies are projected to target Chinese market.

 

AMOLED panel applied to Samsung Elec.’s Galaxy S6 and S6 Edge, which were revealed in MWC2015, utilized new supply chain and it is estimated these will be used for AMOLED panels of future products. Dow Chem.’s phosphorescent red host materials were chosen for the new supply chain.

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<OLED Emitting Material Market Forecast Source: UBI Research>

Regarding this matter, the head of UBI Research Dr. Choong Hoon Yi will give an in-depth presentation titled ‘The Future of OLED’ discussing OLED emitting material market and OLED industry at the 1st OLED Korea Conference. The 1st OLED Korea Conference will be held in SC Convention in Gangnam, Seoul, South Korea on April 2.